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The Global and Local Stainless Steel Primary Product Market

Date:2019.10.17 Source:

GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND SOUTH AFRICAN CONSUMPTION

World Stainless Steel Production 1950 – 2018

Total world production of stainless steel primary products, according to the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), was 50.7 million tonnes in 2018 as opposed to 48.1 million tonnes in 2017.

From 1950 to 2018 the fitted Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was 5.67%, whilst from 1980 to 2018 this was 5.56%. During the same period, the ISSF’s figures for lead (2.01%), zinc (2.05%), steel (2.47%), copper (2.64%), and aluminium (3.84%) all show that stainless steel outperformed other metals.

(Unlike the normal CAGR, which calculates the annual rate that would grow the starting value, 1950 production, to the ending value, 2018 production, the fitted CAGR represents the average growth rate returned from an exponential curve fitted to each year’s production tonnage. Unlike normal CAGR, with the fitted CAGR, the value for each year’s production DOES matter, because each value affects the average growth rate that is calculated. This method is used throughout this report.)

The Chinese Share of Global Stainless Steel Production

China became a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on 11 December 2001. Prior to this, China’s share of global stainless steel production was less than 5%. By 2007, Chinese production had risen to more than 25% and plateaued at just more than 50% in 2013.

The fitted CAGR of Chinese production from 1980 to 2001 was 6.8%. After admittance to the WTO, this fitted CAGR has dramatically increased to 20.4% for the period from 2002 to 2018.

The fitted CAGR of global production, excluding China, from 1980 to 2001 was 5.3%. From 2002 to 2018, global production, excluding China, was a paltry 0.18%. This clearly demonstrates that since Chinese admittance to the WTO, almost all global growth has occurred in China.

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